|
Mesoscale Discussion 843 |
< Previous MD Next MD >
|
|
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0843
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL INTO E-CNTRL IL / SWRN THRU CNTRL AND INTO
N-CNTRL IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 301551Z - 301745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD
DAMAGING WIND RISK.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SWELLING CU FIELD
ACROSS THE WABASH RIVER VALLEY AMIDST AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AS TEMPS
RISE THROUGH THE 70S AND INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE OZARK PLATEAU WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM TO THE NE TOWARDS THE OH/MS
RIVER CONFLUENCE BY MID AFTERNOON WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NEWD
FROM SERN MO INTO S-CNTRL IL. MARGINAL TO POCKETS OF MODERATE
BUOYANCY /500-1200 J PER KG MLCAPE/ WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE
AIRMASS DESTABILIZES FURTHER. 30-KT H5 FLOW ON THE SE-SIDE OF THE
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ACT TO SUPPORT ISOLD STRONG
QUASI-DISCRETE CELLS BUT THE OVERALL MARGINAL SHEAR WILL YIELD A
MULTICELL MODE. NONETHELESS...THE MOIST AIRMASS COUPLED WITH
MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW FIELDS WILL PROBABLY YIELD AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
..SMITH/MEAD.. 05/30/2015
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38068950 38728943 40638738 41058640 41108531 40748478
40298472 38398675 37838775 37748891 38068950
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
|
|