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Mesoscale Discussion 855 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0855
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IDAHO...NWRN WY AND SWRN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 011848Z - 012045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY FROM SERN IDAHO INTO NWRN WY AND SWRN MT AFTER 19-20Z. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE DESTABILIZING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM SERN ID INTO NWRN WY AND SWRN MT THIS AFTERNOON. SFC
DEWPOINTS AROUND 50F ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
SUPPORTING 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND RUC PFCS
INDICATE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
MORE ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT AS SFC TEMPERATURES APPROACH 80F. SOME
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN RECENTLY OBSERVED NEAR
THE ID/NEV BORDER. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF PRE-EXISTING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
SRN IDAHO INTO SWRN MT. WV IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED VORTICITY
MAXIMUM APPROACHING SWRN ID. FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THIS
FEATURE SHOULD FURTHER SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS. A 40 KT
MID-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH BASE OF VORT MAX HAS OVERSPREAD THE
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...CONTRIBUTING TO 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
WHICH WILL PROMOTE UPDRAFT ROTATION. BOTH BOWING SEGMENTS AND SOME
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MATURE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..DIAL/MEAD.. 06/01/2015
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...
LAT...LON 41961372 42681405 43531328 44401286 45231290 45871177
45880995 44631054 42321110 41961372
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