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Mesoscale Discussion 974 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0974
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ILLINOIS...SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...NRN
INDIANA...NWRN OHIO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 112052Z - 112245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...IT IS NOT YET CERTAIN THAT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.
DISCUSSION...A STALLED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THE CURRENT TIME...THIS
APPEARS MAINLY WHERE LAKE BREEZES ARE ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 2000 J/KG. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
REMAINS WEAK /UNCLEAR...AND IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE RATHER WEAK TO MODEST
STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH
30-40 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND COULD ENHANCE ONGOING ACTIVITY IN THE
PEAK LATE AFTERNOON HEATING. STRONGER ACTIVITY MAY BECOME CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL...BUT IT MAY NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS COULD CONTRIBUTE
TO AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.
..KERR/HART.. 06/11/2015
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...GRR...LOT...DVN...
LAT...LON 41978831 41938774 41868638 42238614 41618449 41198332
40778379 40848611 40638788 41268922 41778897 41978831
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