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Mesoscale Discussion 991 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0991
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 122052Z - 122215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL REPORT AND/OR
DAMAGING WIND GUST EXISTS OVER THE AREA...BUT THE SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
EXTENT OF THE THREAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIMITED. AS SUCH...WW
ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST 1-2
HOURS ACROSS SERN KS...IN RESPONSE TO SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AN
EWD-PROGRESSING COMPOSITE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEAK FORCING
FOR ASCENT FROM A PASSING IMPULSE /EVIDENT IN REGIONAL VWP DATA/.
AMPLE INSOLATION AND MOISTURE /E.G. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S/ HAVE FOSTERED MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. WHILE EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SOME
VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS LIKELY PROVIDING SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION
WITHIN MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...WHILE WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK KINEMATICS AND THE LIMITED NATURE
OF THE THREAT...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND REPORT REMAINS
POSSIBLE.
..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 06/12/2015
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 36269642 36709622 37619518 38109458 38449417 38669376
38479331 37829299 37449304 36999351 36389475 35889567
35989625 36269642
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