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Mesoscale Discussion 998 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0998
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PANHANDLE...TX S PLAINS...SW TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 293...
VALID 130101Z - 130230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 293 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF TORNADO
WATCH 293. A TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR MODE WILL INCREASE THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE TSTM CLUSTER AROUND LBB.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW NUMEROUS
SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH THE ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS
LEADING TO MESSY CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND STORM INTERACTIONS.
TRANSITION FROM A MORE CELLULAR MODE TO A LINEAR MODE OCCURRED WITH
THE TSTM THAT MOVED THROUGH PVW AND PRODUCED 60 KNOT GUSTS AT PVW
AND DOWNSTREAM AT THE MESONET SITE IN AIKEN. A SIMILAR TRANSITION IS
LIKELY UNDERWAY WITH THE CLUSTER OF STORMS IN LUBBOCK AND LYNN
COUNTIES WHERE TWO SUPERCELLS RECENTLY COLLIDED. THIS LINEAR
TRANSITION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WHILE LOWERING THE TORNADO POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY...THIS COMPLEX
MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE MORE LINEAR COMPLEX TO ITS NE ACROSS
MOTLEY COUNTY IF COLD POOL AMALGAMATION IS REALIZED. WHILE THERE HAS
BEEN SOME REDUCTION IN INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
CONTINUED SVR THREAT.
..MOSIER.. 06/13/2015
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 30250402 35030242 35020014 30260182 30250402
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