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Mesoscale Discussion 1025 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1025
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MD...NRN VA...ERN WV PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 150602Z - 150800Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING ESEWD ACROSS PARTS
OF MD AND INTO NRN VA AND THE ERN WV PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND MAY POSE A RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION...WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER-70S SFC DEWPOINTS...NOCTURNAL COOLING HAS
BEEN RELATIVELY LIMITED -- SUPPORTING AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
S OF LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION SPREADING ESEWD FROM S-CNTRL PA.
THE LWX VWP SAMPLES AROUND 30-35 KT OF DEEP SHEAR THAT MAY MAINTAIN
OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED...FORWARD-PROPAGATING MULTICELL CLUSTERS.
SPORADIC STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR...AND AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND
GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ASSOCIATION WITH MESO-GAMMA-SCALE
CIRCULATIONS RELATED TO SUSTAINED CONVECTION -- E.G. THAT WHICH IS
CROSSING INTO FREDERICK COUNTY MD. SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ESEWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY WEAKEN
AS MODEST NOCTURNAL COOLING AND STABILIZATION CONTINUE. ONLY MODEST
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY THE IAD 00Z RAOB AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK DCAPE...ALONG WITH THE LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD
MITIGATE A GREATER SVR-TSTM RISK.
..COHEN/DIAL.. 06/15/2015
ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...
LAT...LON 39507813 39597681 39447607 39107623 39087745 39297810
39507813
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