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Mesoscale Discussion 1051 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1051
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MT...NRN WY...WRN SD...AND FAR
NWRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 172032Z - 172230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND A COUPLE TORNADOES. WATCH
ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE BY 21-22Z.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AS HEATING ALONG HIGHER
TERRAIN AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A CONFLUENCE
BOUNDARY/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WORK IN CONCERT WITH WEAK FORCING
FOR ASCENT ALOFT. SUFFICIENT HEATING AND SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S HAVE YIELDED MLCAPE AROUND 500-1500 J/KG...AS FAIRLY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SURMOUNT THE REGION. WITH A CORRIDOR OF
ENHANCED WLY FLOW OVERHEAD...EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL
PROMOTE UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION IN MORE VIGOROUS CELLS. HIGHER MOMENTUM
FLOW IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER AND A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
OFFER A STRONG WIND POTENTIAL...WHILE UPDRAFT ROTATION AND MID-LEVEL
CAPE WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...BACKED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY AND SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE MCD MAY FAVOR A
TORNADO OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AS
SUCH...WATCH ISSUANCE BY 21-22Z IS POSSIBLE.
..PICCA/KERR.. 06/17/2015
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...TFX...
LAT...LON 44420284 43850204 43270206 42900230 42790332 42840419
44620817 45070906 45790981 46391006 46690987 46820898
46400723 45870598 45010415 44420284
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