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Mesoscale Discussion 1056 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1056
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309...
VALID 180849Z - 181045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ISOLATED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS
NWRN NEB ATTM...AND MAY SPREAD ACROSS WRN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEB WITH TIME AS THE BOWING MCS CONTINUES MOVING SEWD.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A RELATIVELY
WELL-ORGANIZED/BOWING LINE OF STORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS NWRN NEB AT
AROUND 40 KT. THE STORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
FEATURING AMPLE INSTABILITY /500-1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/...NEAR
THE NOSE OF A 30 KT LOW-LEVEL JET.
THE FASTEST-MOVING PORTION OF THE BOW APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE
SERN CORNER OF THE WW BETWEEN 10Z AND 1030Z. HOWEVER...A MUCH LESS
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS INDICATED INTO CENTRAL NEB BY LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES...WITH THE ERN BORDER OF THE WW LOCATED WITHIN A STRONG N-S
GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY. WITH GREATER INSTABILITY RESIDING OVER WRN
NEB...AND THE HIGH-PLAINS LLJ PROGGED TO VEER SLIGHTLY WITH TIME TO
A MORE SSWLY DIRECTION...MAIN PUSH OF THE CONVECTION -- AND
ASSOCIATED/LINGERING SEVERE RISK -- MAY SPREAD IN A MORE SSEWD
DIRECTION AND REMAIN OVER WRN NEB. THIS -- COMBINED WITH LIKELIHOOD
THAT SEVERE RISK GRADUALLY DIMINISHES WITH TIME -- SUGGESTS
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO NEW WW ISSUANCE. ATTM...IT APPEARS AT
LEAST POSSIBLY THAT SMALL LOCAL EXTENSIONS IN AREA MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO CONTAIN ANY RESIDUAL SEVERE RISK BEYOND THE CURRENT CONFINES OF
THE WATCH.
..GOSS.. 06/18/2015
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 42960018 42999927 42049868 40909831 40389843 40279924
40090082 40240187 41160258 41990288 41970219 41900131
42320031 42960018
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