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Mesoscale Discussion 1064 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1064
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL INTO S-CNTRL AND SERN MT / NERN WY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 182157Z - 190030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE INITIAL STORMS FORMING PREFERENTIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIDELY-SPACED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
PRIMARILY OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A MOIST AXIS
EXTENDING NWWD FROM THE N-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM NEAR 50 ON THE MT/ALBERTA BORDER TO
THE UPPER 50S IN NERN WY. STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH THE
APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
/1000-2000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROKEN CIRRUS CANOPY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW REGIME.
AREA VAD WIND DATA SHOW ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING MARKEDLY TO WLY
AND INCREASING TO 50-60 KT IN THE 4-6 KM AGL LAYER. AS A
RESULT...STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR /50-70 KT/ WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING ONLY
SPARSE TO ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE THIS EVENING...IF STORMS MANAGE TO
DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED...THE STORMS WILL LIKELY POSE A LARGE
TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT.
A CONDITIONAL SUPERCELL TORNADO RISK IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING
OVER SERN MT AND NERN WY WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENLARGING
HODOGRAPHS AND WHERE THE RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST.
..SMITH/WEISS.. 06/18/2015
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...
LAT...LON 44080615 44640745 45080962 45511138 47311216 48801198
48971040 48500928 47010881 45060537 44320535 44080615
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