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Mesoscale Discussion 1070 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1070
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1001 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191501Z - 191630Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR IN STRONG STORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO MIDDAY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ROOTED
ABOVE A DRIER AND MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS THAT A RECENT
INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR PIERRE SD IS LIKELY IN
RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION...ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF AT LEAST ONE LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE. THIS APPEARS ROOTED MOSTLY AT
MID-LEVELS...WITHIN THE THERMAL GRADIENT ON THE NOSE OF WARMER AND
MORE STRONGLY CAPPING AIR /ROUGHLY CENTERED AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL/
ADVECTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH PLAINS.
THE RAPID REFRESH SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT THIS FORCING COULD PERSIST
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...INTO THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME... BEFORE
WEAKENING WHILE SLOWLY DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD. AS LONG AS IT
MAINTAINS STRENGTH...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY PERSIST.
ON THE EDGE OF THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUPPORTIVE OF AT
LEAST MODEST CAPE FOR THE ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS...AND IN THE
PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40+ KT WEST
NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...AT LEAST OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL MAY BE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...EASTWARD ADVECTION WILL TEND TO SPREAD
CONVECTION ABOVE A PROGRESSIVE DRIER AND MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
ENVIRONMENT.
..KERR/GUYER.. 06/19/2015
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 44470083 44680000 44239807 43629715 42989872 43600025
44070112 44470083
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