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Mesoscale Discussion 1074 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1074
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 192011Z - 192215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AT LEAST SPOTTY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...AFTER INITIATING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO...SCATTERED NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NOW APPEARS UNDERWAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AS
WELL AS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NEAR SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS. MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION APPEARS
WEAK... BUT STRONG SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES TO ERODE LINGERING
INHIBITION.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT INTO INLAND PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN HAS BECOME HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70F. THIS AIR MASS ALSO APPEARS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO
LARGE CAPE...WHICH MAY SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE FURTHER STORM
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT WESTERLY DEEP
LAYER MEAN FLOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUED EASTWARD PROPAGATION
OF THE STORMS NOW FORMING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOW-LEVEL OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM SEA BREEZE STORMS MAY
SUPPORT WESTWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
INTO THE PIEDMONT. CONSIDERABLE STORM/OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS SEEM
LIKELY TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED ORGANIZED STORM
CLUSTERS. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS...AIDED
BY HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING...AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE
SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
..KERR/GUYER.. 06/19/2015
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 34748263 35048171 35607981 35647904 35757667 34417790
34157878 33657963 32998077 33388240 34748263
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