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Mesoscale Discussion 1085 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1085
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PIEDMONT OF GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 201922Z - 202115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS ACROSS THE GEORGIA INTO
SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE NEED FOR A WATCH
STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION HAS CONTRIBUTED
TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR/SOUTH THROUGH EAST OF
THE GREATER ATLANTA METROPOLITAN AREA. THIS IS GENERALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL...WHERE WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW IS ONLY A RATHER MODEST 20 KT OR SO. HOWEVER...THIS WILL AID
CONTINUED PROPAGATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF GEORGIA INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES INCREASINGLY STRONGLY
HEATED AND DEEPLY MIXED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S. WHILE THE PRONOUNCED WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF CONVECTION IS ALSO NOT OPTIMAL...THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITH ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION. IT ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT
OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM ONGOING STRENGTHENING/CONSOLIDATING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA COULD PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS EMERGING FROM GEORGIA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AS STORMS TRACK EAST NORTHEASTWARD ALONG IT.
..KERR/GUYER.. 06/20/2015
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CAE...GSP...FFC...
LAT...LON 33228344 33968289 34398229 34858085 34527991 32878259
32898480 33228344
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