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Mesoscale Discussion 1087 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA...FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND
FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 202010Z - 202215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER EASTERN IOWA...WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS A COLD FRONT IN
CENTRAL IOWA. WITH INCREASING DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARING LIKELY TO OCCUR...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED BY 21Z.
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PRODUCING SPORADIC INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. TO THE WEST OF THIS
CONVECTION...STRONG CAPPING AND STRONG INSOLATION HAS ALLOWED FOR A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO DEVELOP WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE.
VEERED SURFACE FLOW IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA HAVE
LESSENED THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...BUT 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES AROUND 250 M2/S2 INDICATED ON LATEST WSR-88D WIND
PROFILER AT DMX SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT SHEAR
FOR STORM ROTATION AND A TORNADO THREAT IN SURFACE BASED STORMS.
LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION ALONG SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT IN
IOWA...AND DAMAGING WINDS...SIGNIFICANT HAIL...AND TORNADOES ARE ALL
POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION MATERIALIZES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED BY 21Z.
..COOK/GUYER.. 06/20/2015
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON 42209337 41809446 41499510 40869548 40449522 40129445
39809299 39709147 39819040 40328984 41089003 41729053
42099129 42259204 42209337
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