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Mesoscale Discussion 1089 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1089
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...FAR SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA...AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 202050Z - 202245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH A GRADUAL UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW
ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
AND FAR WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND A FEW TOWERING CU ARE NOTED
VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWER 80S HAVE
ALLOWED FOR WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IN THE
DISCUSSION AREA...WITH 500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE NOTED IN THE DISCUSSION
AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK AND ONLY CONTAIN A
VERY SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT...50-KNOT MID-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION. OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ENOUGH
SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT TO WARRANT CONSIDERATION OF A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..COOK/GUYER.. 06/20/2015
ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 45850439 45620534 45260617 44790682 44370692 43930661
43510585 43170436 43120339 43390224 43660170 43970135
44420116 44780123 45530166 45860233 45890344 45850439
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