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Mesoscale Discussion 1101 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...I-70 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 211442Z - 211645Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED
THROUGH MID DAY...BEFORE INCREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH
PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR/NORTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI...GENERALLY WITHIN A ZONE OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
CONFLUENCE. THIS LIKELY HAS BEEN AIDED BY FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING
EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...THOUGH
INTENSIFICATION/INCREASE IN COVERAGE MAY STILL BE SLOWED A BIT BY
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR EMERGING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
AT LEAST A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL IN INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT
IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT THIS THREAT COULD DIMINISH AS CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH MIDDAY. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
ARE RELATIVELY WEAK TO MODEST IN STRENGTH...BUT WITH
TIME...LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF 30-50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN
UPSCALE GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. AS THIS OCCURS...AN ASSOCIATED
STRENGTHENING/FORWARD PROPAGATING COLD POOL PROBABLY WILL BEGIN TO
EMERGE WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..KERR/CARBIN.. 06/21/2015
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39839556 39999429 39889252 39119025 38349054 38269263
38599548 39839556
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