MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1105
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0303 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS INTO NWRN/W CNTRL...CNTRL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 322...

   VALID 212003Z - 212130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 322
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN
   STRONGEST STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI...PERHAPS
   ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...THROUGH 22-23Z.

   DISCUSSION...REGENERATION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
   FOCUSED ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY BETWEEN KANSAS CITY AND THE ST.
   JOSEPH AREA...ABOVE A BROAD POOL OF RAIN COOLED AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
   EARLY STORMS.  THIS APPEARS NEAR THE TRANSITION FROM BROADLY
   ANTICYCLONIC TO CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
   SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...ALONG THE
   MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DELINEATING THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
   VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR EMANATING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST.  LITTLE CHANGE APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH 22-23Z...OTHER THAN
   PERHAPS A SUBTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS REGIME AWAY FROM THE
   KANSAS CITY/ST. JOSEPH AREAS.

   ..KERR.. 06/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   40629523 40389393 39349337 38979394 39029444 40029548
               40629523