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Mesoscale Discussion 1124 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...NWRN OH...NRN INDIANA...NERN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 230031Z - 230130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED BY 01Z FROM LOWER MI SWWD
INTO NERN IL.
DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
LOWER MI PER EXPANDING ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT IS EVOLVING ATOP
BOUNDARY LAYER STRATUS. WHILE 00Z SOUNDING AT DTX IS NOTABLY
CAPPED...800MB TEMPERATURE IS 7C COOLER AT GRB IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. COOLING PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKER INHIBITION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND NEAR-SFC BASED TSTMS WILL
LIKELY EVOLVE WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN LOWER MI INTO NRN
INDIANA. SHEAR PROFILES STRONGLY SUPPORT DEEP ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY OBSERVED SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE.
ADDITIONALLY...DISCRETE SUPERCELL OVER NRN IL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SEWD ALONG DECAYED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CHICAGO
METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO
NWRN INDIANA LATER THIS EVENING.
..DARROW/CARBIN.. 06/23/2015
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 42128801 43908330 42748214 41588379 40368769 42128801
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