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Mesoscale Discussion 1142 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1142
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0447 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...DC...DE...MD...NJ...PA...VA...WV
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346...
VALID 232147Z - 232315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO IMPACT CENTRAL AND SRN NJ AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NRN MD AND DEL
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS POTENT SQUALL LINE MOVES EAST.
DISCUSSION...INTENSE STORMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO A BOWING ARC FROM
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF CHESAPEAKE BAY TO THE DELAWARE RIVER. THE
CONSOLIDATION OF THIS ACTIVITY INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST AT 40-50KT INTO
PRONOUNCED INSTABILITY AXIS FROM DELMARVA TO CENTRAL NJ WHERE SFC
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 90S F AND OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS DCAPE VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF 1200 J PER KG. WITH
CONVECTIVE LINE ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO 50-60KT MID-LEVEL JET AND
MAGNITUDE OF DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 70KT...APPEARS QUITE HIGH.
..CARBIN/DARROW.. 06/23/2015
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...
RLX...
LAT...LON 36978048 36978054 37228123 37298131 37348136 37458130
38098087 39727893 41227554 41367469 41207437 40257363
39707376 39597380 39507386 37887494 37047551 36978048
36978048
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