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Mesoscale Discussion 1151 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE WY...SW SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 347...
VALID 240823Z - 241000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 347
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THREAT FOR SVR HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. A
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LINEAR MCS MAY BE UNDERWAY WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THE SVR THREAT TO MOVE E/SE OF THE WATCH.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A CLUSTER OF
TSTMS ACROSS WESTON CO WY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ARCING FROM
THIS CLUSTER EWD INTO SW SD. RECENT MESH DATA HAS SHOWN A PERSISTENT
SIGNAL FOR 1.50 INCH HAIL WITHIN THE CLUSTER AND THE CELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT. ADDITIONALLY...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MORE OF A LINEAR STORM MODE HAS BEEN
REALIZED.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR OVER THE AREA /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
AROUND 50 KT/ AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONTINUED
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL PERSISTING.
LINEAR ORGANIZATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE SELY
PROGRESSION OF THE STORMS WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
EXIT THE WATCH AREA BEFORE EXPIRATION. AS SUCH...LOCAL WATCH
EXTENSION AND/OR NEW DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED.
..MOSIER/MEAD.. 06/24/2015
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...
LAT...LON 44840519 45180457 45260386 45220321 44930207 44100131
43070115 42350292 43520505 44840519
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