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Mesoscale Discussion 1154 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1154
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN INTO CNTRL GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 241814Z - 242015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE MICROBURSTS.
DISCUSSION...RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW RAPIDLY FORMING TCU AND STORMS
OVER THE BULK OF NRN GA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. MODIFIED MORNING
SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WITH IMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MLCAPE VALUES ARE
APPROACHING 4000 J/KG CURRENTLY.
IN ADDITION TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
ALSO ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO OF NUMEROUS STRONG
STORMS OVER GA. WITH CONTINUED HEATING...WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. STORMS MAY TEND TO PROPAGATE
SLOWLY SWWD WITH TIME...PERHAPS MAKING IT INTO FAR ERN AL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE HAIL IS NOT A PRIMARY THREAT...SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY
TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND IN SOME CASES.
..JEWELL/GUYER.. 06/24/2015
ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...
LAT...LON 34138542 34938447 35058393 35008318 34918290 34658270
34278272 33788252 33468213 33138196 32438310 31968464
32188503 32568542 33628581 34138542
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