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Mesoscale Discussion 1160 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1160
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0506 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 242206Z - 250030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SPORADIC DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS
PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...ONE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS SPREADING NWWD FROM THE NW
SIDE OF THE JACKSON MS METRO...AND ANOTHER IS ADVANCING SWD FROM THE
GREENVILLE-GREENWOOD AREA. THESE CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY MERGE NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER N OF INTERSTATE 20...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
POTENTIALLY SPREADING WWD INTO NERN LA/FAR SERN AR AS FACILITATED BY
10-20 KT OF MID-LEVEL ELY FLOW. HIGH THETA-E AIR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER -- AIDED BY SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S AMIDST DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S -- IS FOSTERING MLCAPE AROUND 3000-4000
J/KG. INTENSE UPDRAFTS WILL CONTINUE TO ENSUE...ESPECIALLY AS
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MERGE. PW AROUND 1.75 INCHES PER GPS DATA
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER LOADING TO SUPPORT STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED DMGG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP
SHEAR LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN A MORE SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED SVR RISK.
REGARDLESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. TSTMS
SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD/AFTER SUNSET OWING TO NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION
AND ANTECEDENT CONVECTIVE PROCESSING OF THE STRONG BUOYANCY.
..COHEN/KERR.. 06/24/2015
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...
LAT...LON 32249053 31769151 31959256 32419277 32929239 33289126
33079004 32748997 32249053
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