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Mesoscale Discussion 1167 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1167
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...SERN IA...W-CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 350...
VALID 250423Z - 250630Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 350
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD MAINLY BE PRESENT WITH A SEWD-MOVING
BOWING STRUCTURE NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER THAT SHOULD EVOLVE INTO
W-CNTRL IL.
DISCUSSION...A BOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER MCS OVER MAINLY IA HAS
SHIFTED INTO WW 350 ACROSS FAR SERN IA/NERN MO. CURRENT FORWARD
SPEED OF 30-35 KT WOULD RESULT IN THIS BOW REACHING THE SERN EDGE IN
W-CNTRL IL BETWEEN 07-08Z...BUT IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL
SEWD-ACCELERATION MAY OCCUR. OVERALL SCENARIO DISCUSSED WITHIN MCD
1166 REMAINS ON-TRACK WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY CONTINUING ALONG THE
EDGE OF THE MLCAPE GRADIENT THAT LIES NE OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT NEAR KCDJ TO KSTL. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
A MORE LIMITED SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED WITH NRN EXTENT IN E-CNTRL
IA/NWRN IL GIVEN THE STABILIZED/PREVIOUSLY OVERTURNED AIR MASS
SAMPLED EARLIER IN THE 00Z DVN RAOB AND PROBABLE RECOVERY TO ONLY
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
..GRAMS.. 06/25/2015
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 41169197 41259153 41169119 40939055 40478985 40228963
39908965 39658979 39399003 39139062 39119119 39139168
39289199 39639258 40089310 40319319 40549321 40689287
40479218 40929200 41169197
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