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Mesoscale Discussion 1171 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1171
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT / NERN WY / WRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 251246Z - 251415Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS MORNING WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING LARGE HAIL.
THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED INITIALLY...THOUGH THE
SEVERE STORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER THIS
MORNING...POTENTIALLY NECESSITATING A WATCH.
DISCUSSION...A GENERAL INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED
DURING THE PAST HOUR OVER CNTRL MT /E OF LWT/ WITH OTHER STORMS
PERSISTING SW OF GCC IN NERN WY. THE FORMER STORMS SIGNAL THE
LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING THROUGH CNTRL MT. DOWNSTREAM 12Z
SOUNDINGS AT RIW AND RAP SAMPLED A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS SURMOUNTED BY 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...YIELDING
MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT STORMS
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA
THIS MORNING AS THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS A PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40+ KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING LARGE HAIL.
WHILE A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ONE
COULD BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING.
..MEAD.. 06/25/2015
ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 43050405 43120560 43670640 44590697 45470704 46160621
46260539 46110444 45930403 45630308 44970264 44110230
43340291 43050405
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