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Mesoscale Discussion 1181 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1181
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0704 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CNTRL KS...WRN OK PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 260004Z - 260130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE RISK IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND
MAY PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN THEREAFTER AND
MITIGATE THE NEED FOR A WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...A FEW PROBABLE SEVERE STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ARCING FROM CNTRL KS SWWD TO THE RATON MESA.
WITHIN A HOT/DEEPLY-MIXED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AS SAMPLED BY 00Z DDC RAOB WILL FAVORABLY
SUPPORT A CONTINUED ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND RISK. BUT AMIDST
MODEST DEEP SHEAR...UPDRAFTS HAVE THUS FAR APPEARED SOMEWHAT
PULSE-LIKE AND REMAIN TIED TO THE FRONT/STORM-SCALE OUTFLOW. THE
ONSET OF NOCTURNAL SURFACE COOLING/INCREASING MLCIN IN THE ABSENCE
OF A ROBUST LLJ SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTION DECAYING WITHIN AN HOUR
OR SO OF SUNSET.
..GRAMS/GUYER.. 06/26/2015
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 36770284 37270183 37890061 38689939 39169822 39139763
38749752 38299792 37519963 36800120 36520236 36540266
36770284
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