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Mesoscale Discussion 1194 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1194
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF W TX...WRN/CNTRL OK...S-CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 261024Z - 261200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL EVENTS WILL
CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM THE TX S PLAINS
INTO S-CNTRL KS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR A SWD-MOVING COLD
FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS FROM APPROXIMATELY 20 N AMA TO NEAR ICT AS OF
10Z. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH A VEERED 30 KT LLJ
ORIENTED FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN OF TX INTO THE OZARKS. DESPITE
GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...SUFFICIENT VEERING OF WINDS THROUGH THE
MIDLEVELS IS OCCURRING TO YIELD EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KT.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST CONVECTION IS ASSUMING PULSE TO WEAKLY
ORGANIZED MULTICELL CHARACTERISTICS...WITH BRIEF UPWARD PULSES IN
INTENSITY SUPPORTING INTERMITTENT AND LOCALIZED HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THE LATTER THREAT MAY BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY ENHANCED BY A DRY
LAYER NOTED IN THE LOWEST 2 KM AGL IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AS
RECENT REPORTS HAVE SHOWN ISOLATED GUSTS OVER 60 MPH ACROSS WEST TX
AND THE OK PANHANDLE. TRENDS SUGGEST TSTMS WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
DEVELOPING SWD INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN/CNTRL OK THROUGH MID-LATE
MORNING...WITH LOCALIZED SVR THREAT REMAINING POSSIBLE...BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.
..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 06/26/2015
ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 37699528 36759611 35519773 33110044 32510170 33410228
35240180 35800093 36379937 37709833 38359715 38449599
37699528
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