MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1264
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...TN...NRN AL...NW GA...SCNTRL KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 011629Z - 011730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SHOULD AFFECT THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS AS WELL. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE MAY INCREASE
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS
   THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX NEWD INTO WRN TN AND SRN KY
   WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F. AS SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED
   IN TO THE 80S ALONG MUCH OF THE CORRIDOR...MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS
   DEVELOPED WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED FROM NEAR 2500 J/KG NEAR THE
   TN-MS STATELINE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG IN CNTRL KY AND ERN TN. A LINE
   OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN WRN TN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
   STRONGEST INSTABILITY. THE NASHVILLE WSR-88D VWP SHOW A
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH 30 KT OF WLY FLOW FROM 2 TO 5 KM
   AGL. THIS IS CREATING 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 25 KT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
   FOR CELL ORGANIZATIONS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR ISOLATED SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
   UPDRAFTS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD INCREASE ESPECIALLY IF THE
   COLD POOL CAN INTENSIFY AS CELLS MOVE ACROSS CNTRL TN THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...
   MEG...

   LAT...LON   34288555 34358683 35218827 35598872 35988870 36378827
               36438764 36778669 37148626 37788559 37798483 37418439
               35928378 35018442 34598484 34288555