MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1275
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0816 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO THROUGH SRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 020116Z - 020315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS
   A BRIEF TORNADO WILL PERSIST OVER ECNTRL THROUGH SERN MO INTO SRN IL
   THIS EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR AS GREAT AS
   FARTHER WEST ACROSS WRN MO. WHILE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS
   POSSIBLE FOR THIS REGION...ANY SUCH ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND
   ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

   DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM ECNTRL MO
   THROUGH SRN IL ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT WITHIN A ZONE
   OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION. THESE STORMS FORMED WITHIN A REGION WHERE
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINED CLOUDY MUCH OF THE DAY...AND LAPSE RATES
   ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...RESULTING IN WEAKER INSTABILITY WITH
   ERN EXTENT INTO SRN IL. NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST MODERATE 1000-2000
   J/KG MLCAPE EXISTS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 35-40 KT 0-6
   KM SHEAR...BUT WITH RELATIVELY SMALLER LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS THAN
   FARTHER WEST. ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS
   ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SWD NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE MIGHT BE SOME TENDENCY
   FOR STORMS TO DECOUPLE FROM THE SFC LAYER WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
   COOLING...WHICH MIGHT SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE
   ROBUST SEVERE EVENT.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 07/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   39039214 38958985 38648770 37388846 36979120 38009246
               39039214