MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1315
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 PM CDT MON JUL 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NW MO...NE/E-CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 061857Z - 062030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT IS GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH. SOME SVR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT
   CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE SOMEWHAT
   DISORGANIZED. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF TRENDS INDICATE A MORE
   ORGANIZED WIND THREAT IS DEVELOPING.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
   TSTM STRENGTH DURING THE PAST HOUR. VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS AN
   INCREASINGLY AGITATED CU FIELD AHEAD OF A FRONT EXTENDING FROM FNB
   IN EXTREME SE NEB SWWD ACROSS CNTRL KS TO PYX IN THE FAR NE TX
   PANHANDLE. THUS FAR...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ANAFRONTAL BUT
   THE DIURNALLY DECREASED CINH AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HELP
   PROMOTE MORE SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
   POOR BUT GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL STILL PUSH MLCAPE OVER 2000 J PER KG WITH AT LEAST SOME THREAT
   FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. PRECIP LOADED UPDRAFTS
   MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE LACK OF A BETTER
   KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEP THE ORGANIZED
   SEVERE THREAT LOW BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE COOL
   POOL AMALGAMATION AND BETTER ORGANIZATION RESULTING IN A MORE
   SUSTAINED WIND THREAT NECESSITATING A WATCH.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 07/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37409927 38569782 39559624 40459516 40729401 40199313
               37559674 37409927