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Mesoscale Discussion 1324 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1324
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE AZ...SW/S-CNTRL NM...FAR W TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 081932Z - 082100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS SW/S-CNTRL
NM...EVENTUALLY REACHING FAR W TX. SOME SVR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT THE ISOLATED AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO PREVENT THE NEED FOR A WW.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE HAS CONTINUED TO
INCREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH 30 DBZ REACHING OVER 9 KM IN FEW
STORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE ENVIRONMENT IT DEVELOPED WITHIN...SUGGESTING CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ACT AS THE MAIN
IMPETUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH ADDITIONAL /BUT MODEST/ LARGE
SCALE SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS.
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT THAT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KT
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 TO 30 KT. THIS LACK OF STORM
ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO TEMPER THE SVR THREAT ALTHOUGH SOME
ISOLATED SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED THREAT
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
..MOSIER/MEAD.. 07/08/2015
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...
LAT...LON 31310824 31470895 32540944 33550919 34030861 33950765
33280683 32320596 31820612 31760670 31840813 31310824
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