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Mesoscale Discussion 1336 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1336
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0411 AM CDT THU JUL 09 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 090911Z - 091145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS /THROUGH ABOUT 12-13Z/ ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL KY AS A LINE OF STORMS MOVES TO THE EAST ACROSS THIS REGION.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...A SEVERE
TSTM WATCH IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS...SINCE 0820-0830Z...INDICATED AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED AT 40-45 KT FOR A PORTION OF A LINE OF STORMS
ACROSS TRIGG TO HOPKINS COUNTIES. THESE STORMS APPEARED TO HAVE
INCREASED IN INTENSITY SOME AS THEY MOVED EWD INTO THE NRN EXTENT OF
AN INSTABILITY CORRIDOR...WHICH EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL KY. FORCING
FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND A TRANSIENT LOWER OH
VALLEY MIDLEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS EWD MOVING MCS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH OF
NEAR SURFACE-BASED STABILIZATION...50-KT WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS /1-3 KM
AGL/ PER PAH/HPX VADS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE BETWEEN 12-15Z AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
WITH THE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVES DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY
AND THE WLY LLJ WEAKENS ACROSS KY.
..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 07/09/2015
ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...PAH...
LAT...LON 36808777 37538696 37638674 37888528 37828477 37288440
36868491 36788579 36808777
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