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Mesoscale Discussion 1340 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1340
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL CA /NRN SIERRA/...CNTRL NV
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 091852Z - 092045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR A WW.
DISCUSSION...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES THE AIRMASS AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
CNTRL CA AND INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A FEW STRONG STORMS NEAR RENO AS
WELL AS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FARTHER E ACROSS CNTRL NV INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN
EXPANSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS CNTRL NV INDICATIVE OF INCREASED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND BROAD SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. LINE
OF TSTMS S OF THE MCD AREA FROM ROUGHLY MMH /IN FAR E-CNTRL CA/ SWD
INTO THE MOHAVE DESERT LIKELY DEMARCATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE
CONTINUED NEWD PROGRESS OF THIS SHORTWAVE COUPLED WITH INCREASED
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AT LEAST MODEST DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED
TO FOSTER CONTINUED TSTM ACTIVITY.
DRY ADIABATIC LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL HELP PROMOTE INVERTED-V
PROFILES WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE COOLING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL LEVEL LAPSE RATE
AND INSTABILITY...SOME HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL AND ISOLATED FOR WW
ISSUANCE.
..MOSIER/MEAD.. 07/09/2015
ATTN...WFO...VEF...LKN...REV...HNX...STO...
LAT...LON 39872044 40221967 40661826 40931653 41001501 40771462
40401448 40301443 39991450 39831467 39551500 39271535
38981604 38781646 38631702 38151867 38161971 38302019
38502051 39182079 39602068 39872044
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