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Mesoscale Discussion 1360 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1360
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN KS...CNTRL NEB...AND FAR SRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 102220Z - 110015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAY POSE A RISK FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...AS WELL AS A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...WW
ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VIS IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAIC DEPICT FAIRLY
ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A LINE FROM TODD COUNTY SD SWD
TO FRONTIER COUNTY NEB. FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A WEAK IMPULSE
PROGRESSING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...AS WELL AS ENHANCED SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM AN APPARENT MCV IN SRN
SD...HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION/MAINTENANCE.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...MOIST
S/SELY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING HAVE YIELDED MLCAPE UPWARDS OF
1500-2000 J/KG EARLY THIS EVENING. MOREOVER...RECENT KLNX VWP DATA
DISPLAY NOTABLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT...AND 0-6-KM SHEAR OF AROUND
30-35 KTS...SUITABLE FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION IN THE STRONGEST
CELLS. THUS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REPORTS...WITH THE WIND THREAT ENHANCED
BY ANY CELL MERGERS/COLD-POOL AMALGAMATION. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES/STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD TEMPER THE OVERALL
THREAT...PRECLUDING WW ISSUANCE.
..PICCA/EDWARDS.. 07/10/2015
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...
LAT...LON 43580106 43519994 43129947 41919908 40239863 39019841
38719846 38629879 38689943 40450103 41390132 42320130
43240130 43580106
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