MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1364
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0247 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EASTERN AZ AND WESTERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 111947Z - 112145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AZ AND
   WESTERN NM...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
   THREATS.  WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY...THOUGH A MARGINAL RISK AREA WILL
   BE INCLUDED IN THE 20Z SWODY1.

   DISCUSSION...DIABATIC HEATING WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT /12Z RAOBS
   SHOWED PW VALUES RANGING FROM NEAR 1 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES/ IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATELY STRONG DESTABILIZATION SO FAR THIS
   AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG.  AS STORMS DEVELOP WITHIN
   THIS AIR MASS...SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR GIVEN 30-40 KT OF SWLY 500-MB
   FLOW WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED STORMS. 
   DESPITE STRONGER BULK SHEAR WITH NRN EXTENT ACROSS THIS AREA OF THE
   SOUTHWEST STATES...WEAKER INSTABILITY WITH NRN EXTENT SHOULD LIMIT
   THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND PRECLUDE THE
   NEED FOR A WATCH.  HOWEVER...DCAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG PER RAP-BASED
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LOW SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WIND AND HAIL SUPPORT THE INCLUSION OF THIS
   AREA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IN THE 20Z SWODY1.

   ..PETERS/HART.. 07/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31491107 33391107 35661070 36830939 36930795 36850687
               36290645 34930680 33440734 32340768 31770806 31750820
               31320825 31311096 31491107