MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1380
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0451 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL KS/S-CNTRL/ERN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 122151Z - 122345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   THIS EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY
   THREATS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LIMITED SPATIAL NATURE OF
   THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON EXHIBITS
   GROWING CU/TCU ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL KS/S-CNTRL NEB...GENERALLY
   NEAR AN ANALYZED SFC TROUGH/WEAK LOW. INDEED...THE LATEST WSR-88D
   MOSAIC INDICATED INITIATION HAS OCCURRED OVER ELLIS AND GRAHAM
   COUNTIES IN KS. AMPLE INSOLATION HAS YIELDED SFC TEMPS IN THE
   90S/LOWER 100S...WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PRESENT. IN
   COMBINATION WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...STEEP
   LAPSE RATES ALOFT HAVE YIELDED STRONG BUOYANCY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES
   ON THE ORDER OF 2500-4500 J/KG /PER MESOANALYSIS DATA/. WHILE
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO A LACK OF
   STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SOME DRY AIR AROUND THE LFC...ANY
   UPDRAFTS THAT BECOME WELL-ROOTED/SUSTAINED IN THE BL SHOULD BE ABLE
   TO UTILIZE ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR UPWARDS OF 40
   KTS. THE PRESENCE OF AMPLE BUOYANCY IN THE HAIL-GROWTH ZONE SHOULD
   OFFER A LARGE-HAIL THREAT...AND THE WELL-MIXED/MOIST BL SHOULD
   ENABLE A STRONG-WIND THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.
   HOWEVER...DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ISSUES IN TERMS OF SPARSE
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..PICCA/EDWARDS.. 07/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38880016 39230045 41409928 41989821 41799695 40109636
               38879720 38369825 38259881 38599976 38880016