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Mesoscale Discussion 1418 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1418
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS/AL/GA...WRN SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 142055Z - 142200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS TN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SWD INTO
NRN MS/AL/GA AND NW SC WITH A CONTINUED SVR THREAT. A SVR TSTM WATCH
WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY.
DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS STRETCHES FROM FAR NE AR
ACROSS TN WITH RECENT RADAR INDICATIONS SUGGESTING UPSCALE GROWTH IS
UNDERWAY. A CONCENTRATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH
THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE AR/TN BORDER. RECENT
FORWARD SPEED ON THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 50 KT. OTHER PORTION OF THE
LINE HAS EXHIBITED SLOWER SEWD MOTION BUT THE CONTINUED UPSCALE
GROWTH AS WELL AS A MODERATE INCREASE IN NWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
ACCELERATE THIS PORTION OF THE LINE OF STORMS AS WELL. AS SUCH...SVR
THREAT WILL CONTINUE FARTHER S IN NRN MS/AL/GA AND WRN SC WITH A SVR
TSTM WATCH NEEDED SHORTLY TO COVER THIS THREAT.
..MOSIER/HART.. 07/14/2015
ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
LAT...LON 34919029 35238990 35298825 35258494 35158384 35138315
35048125 34688091 34038165 33828476 33828897 34219050
34919029
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