MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1436
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0706 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 160006Z - 160230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
   HOURS ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ND. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
   REGION THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1006 MB LOW OVER FAR SW
   ND WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE SFC LOW INTO NRN ND. TO
   THE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
   UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO A POCKET OF
   STRONG INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE FROM 2000 TO 3000
   J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE BISMARCK WSR-88D VWP SHOWS SOME DIRECTIONAL
   SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 3 KM WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO ABOUT 25 KT OF
   0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MARGINAL
   SEVERE THREAT AS MULTICELLS MOVE NNEWD ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ND THIS
   EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE MCD AREA MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WET DOWNBURSTS WITH THE
   MORE MATURE DOWNDRAFTS. THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY ALSO BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 07/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   45850186 45900031 46399975 47319962 48549951 48950061
               48900267 48560360 48020381 47030325 46350271 45850186