MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1442
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0809 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND FAR NORTHERN WYOMING

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 170109Z - 170245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A RECENT UPTICK IN CONVECTION HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE
   PAST HOUR...WITH A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONGEST
   STORMS.  THE COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE
   NEED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA OVER THE PAST HOUR.  THESE
   STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A MID-LEVEL FORCING DUE TO AN
   APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COOLING OF MID-LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES.  THESE STORMS ARE IN AN ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY
   SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY /AROUND
   250-500 J/KG MUCAPE/...BUT ASCENT DUE TO THE APPROACHING
   SHORTWAVE...FORWARD-PROPAGATING COMPONENT TO THE MOTION OF THE
   STORMS...AND 35-40 KNOT WESTERLY DEEP SHEAR SUPPORTS AT LEAST A
   LOWER-END THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS.  AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A
   WW ISSUANCE.

   ..COOK/MEAD.. 07/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

   LAT...LON   44910934 45430958 46000930 46450867 46740754 46770613
               46640431 46090394 45650381 44660492 44640741 44910934