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Mesoscale Discussion 1451 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1451
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 172243Z - 180015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
DISCUSSION...A WSW-ENE-ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
MATURED INTO TSTMS OVER ANTELOPE...SRN PIERCE AND NRN MADISON
COUNTIES IN NERN NEB AS OF 2230Z. MESOANALYSIS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE SUGGEST THAT A SUBTLE CONFLUENCE ZONE BETWEEN ONL AND OFK
ALONG WITH THE REMOVAL OF WEAK CAPPING WITHIN A COMPARATIVELY HOTTER
AND DEEPER-MIXED PBL OVER CNTRL NEB /AROUND ODX/ MIGHT BE
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO THIS NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT.
IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MANY STORMS WILL ULTIMATELY DEVELOP
WITHIN THIS REGIME DUE TO THE APPARENT ABSENCE OF ANY LARGE-SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS. NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST AND
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /I.E. RAP-BASED MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED
IN THE 3500-4500+ J/KG RANGE/ COUPLED WITH A MODESTLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL MORPHOLOGIES WITH AN ATTENDANT
RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
A CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND MODE TRANSITION TO
SUPERCELLS COULD WARRANT A WATCH.
..MEAD.. 07/17/2015
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 41699866 42069874 42559841 42699780 42659717 42509672
42079642 41639654 41319694 41159760 41279842 41699866
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