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Mesoscale Discussion 1456 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1456
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0955 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 430...
VALID 180255Z - 180400Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 430
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DECREASING ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WW
430. PARTS OF THIS WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED.
DISCUSSION...STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLIER HAVE NOW
MERGED INTO A LINE STRETCHING FROM NEAR STEVENS COUNTY MINNESOTA TO
NEAR HAMLIN COUNTY SOUTH DAKOTA. A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY CONTINUE TO
FORWARD-PROPAGATE INTO AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH AOA 3000 J/KG
MLCAPE AND 40 KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED
ORGANIZATION. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN PARTS OF WW
430 OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
FARTHER NORTH...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS LESSENED THE SEVERE
THREAT OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LINGERING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS COMPARATIVELY
WEAKER COMPARED TO STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WW DUE TO
LESSER INSTABILITY. SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER GIVEN THE
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER FAR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW. LARGE PARTS OF WW 430 MAY BE
CANCELLED.
..COOK/MEAD.. 07/18/2015
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 46269793 45229972 44669986 44389956 44299840 44379723
44699660 45259617 45829588 46159606 46359678 46289758
46269793
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