MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1462
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0637 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 181137Z - 181230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WITH LONG-LIVED QLCS WEAKENING SUBSTANTIALLY OVER ERN
   WI...THE RISK FOR STRONG WINDS PRODUCING TREE DAMAGE MAY REMAIN TOO
   LOW TO WARRANT DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE ALONG THE ERN SHORE OF LK MI.

   DISCUSSION...5/9-KM CAPPI TRENDS AND IR CLOUD TOP WARMING SINCE
   1045Z SUGGEST THAT THE LONG-LIVED QLCS IS WEAKENING GREATLY IN
   INTENSITY WITH A BROADENING GRADIENT NOTED IN BASE
   REFLECTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH SRN EXTENT. WITH PROBABLE WEAKER DEEP
   SHEAR AND LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES E OF LK MI...OVERALL
   ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUBSTANTIAL
   INTENSIFICATION THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE FEW CAMS SUCH AS THE
   ESRL-HRRR AND WRF-HRW/S WHICH HAD ANY INDICATION OF AN OVERNIGHT MCS
   ALL SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD STRUGGLE TO GREATLY INTENSIFY E
   OF THE LK. BUT GIVEN THE WELL-DEFINED MCV OVER N-CNTRL WI TRACKING
   E...IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT A RISK FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS MIGHT
   BE SUSTAINED A COUPLE HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF W-CNTRL LOWER MI.

   ..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 07/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   44778652 44798605 44568543 44178525 43808531 43478542
               43268580 43268627 43358685 43558703 43928691 44778652