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Mesoscale Discussion 1486 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1486
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL AND NERN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 192240Z - 200015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.
A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE A
DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD FROM WEST OF PHP INTO S-CNTRL SD AND N-CNTRL
NEB /NEAR AND NW OF VTN/. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THIS CONVECTION
IS FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COUPLE OF TROUGHS/CONFLUENCE ZONES
PRESENT OVER WRN SD INTO WRN NEB AND WITHIN A WARM AND MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH RAP-BASED MLCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG OVER
SD TO 1000-2000 J/KG OVER NEB.
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL
BE AUGMENTED BY DCVA ATTENDANT TO AN UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO WRN SD TO FOSTER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. MODEST /25-30 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP
SLY SURFACE WINDS IS YIELDING SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY AMALGAMATE
INTO A SEWD-MOVING MCS TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR GUSTY
WINDS.
WHILE A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED OWING TO EXPECTED
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT THAT COULD NECESSITATE A
WATCH.
..MEAD.. 07/19/2015
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 42250138 42830177 43220173 43610139 43690094 43320015
43119978 42849896 42689811 42379772 41929785 41769831
41779927 41810049 41960103 42250138
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