MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1490
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0747 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
   ILLINOIS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 200047Z - 200245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN
   CENTRAL MISSOURI NEAR VIH.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
   FOR ANY CONTINUED INCREASE IN COVERAGE WHICH MAY NECESSITATE A WW
   ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED NEAR VIH ALONG A
   STALLED E-W SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.  THE AIRMASS JUST
   SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE...WITH 3500-4000 J/KG
   MLCAPE...MODEST NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND WEAKLY VEERING WIND FIELDS
   WITH HEIGHT SUPPORTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION
   AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH SUSTAINED STORMS.  OBSERVATIONS
   AND MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING THIS ACTIVITY
   SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME TOWARD THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND
   OHIO RIVERS...AND A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT COULD EXIST WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN THE REGION.
    CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE...WHICH MAY NECESSITATE A WW ISSUANCE.

   ..COOK/MEAD.. 07/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   38059217 38459190 38529136 38499070 38379007 38188931
               37618886 36968895 36708924 36618991 37079131 37519203
               38059217