MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1496
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 202050Z - 202245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU EAST TO THE MISSOURI
   BOOTHEEL ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF STORM COVERAGE
   AND INTENSITY INCREASE OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY.

   DISCUSSION...VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN MO
   THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 90S AMIDST A VERY
   MOIST AIRMASS WITH HIGH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. A WEAK
   BOUNDARY/STATIONARY FRONT LEFT IN THE WAKE OF A MORNING MCS APPEARS
   TO BE SITUATED FROM NEAR THE BOOTHEEL NWWD TO WHERE IT INTERSECTS
   ANOTHER BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT EXTENDING NEWD FROM OK. MEANWHILE...A
   COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

   DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...IT APPEARS WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION...IN CONCERT WITH CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND MESOSCALE
   LIFT ALONG INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES...SHOULD ACT TO PROMOTE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
   STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST
   MIDLEVEL FLOW AROUND 30KT. WHETHER THESE STORMS PERSIST SUFFICIENTLY
   TO WARRANT A WATCH REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE
   CONVECTION MAY ORGANIZE LINEARLY ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT LATER
   THIS EVENING WITH SOME INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

   ..CARBIN/CORFIDI.. 07/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38689441 38549290 37679136 37658972 36848940 36168986
               36509006 36529223 36549365 36519452 37439452 38109453
               38689441