|
Mesoscale Discussion 1515 |
< Previous MD Next MD >
|
|
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1515
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND...CNTRL AND NRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448...
VALID 240541Z - 240745Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LINE OF STORMS
MOVES SEWD INTO THE FAR SERN PART OF WW 448 OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THE
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED WITH TIME. A LOCAL EXTENSION IN AREA AND
TIME HAS BEEN DONE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND NCNTRL MN. ALTHOUGH WW
ISSUANCE TO THE SE OF WW 448 APPEARS UNLIKELY...THE ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1004 MB LOW OVER NERN
SD WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM CNTRL SD NEWD INTO ERN ND. AN AXIS
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE SFC
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN ERN SD TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S F
ACROSS ERN ND AND WRN MN. AS A RESULT...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
ANALYZED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHICH IS FUELING THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
NEAR THE ND-MN STATELINE AND ACROSS FAR NERN SD. THE ACTIVITY IS
BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ESEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THE CONVECTION WILL ENCOUNTER WEAKER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WW 448. HOWEVER...THE STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS BEFORE BECOME MARGINAL DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
..BROYLES/GUYER.. 07/24/2015
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 45559921 46879913 48129864 48999653 48769471 47859437
46509538 45669603 45359659 45239780 45559921
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
|
|