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Mesoscale Discussion 1534 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1534
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN SD...WRN NEB...NWRN KS...NERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 252222Z - 260045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR-TSTM RISK WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING. WHILE CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM
OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS AROUND THE BLACK HILLS AREA IN SWRN SD AND
SWD ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF DEEPER PBL MIXING INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS. A FEW ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS REGIME -- PERHAPS
AS FAR S AS NWRN KS/NERN CO WHERE VIS IMAGERY INDICATES CU
DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST/UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS INDICATE WEAK CONVERGENCE...AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS
SUGGEST WEAK LARGE-SCALE VERTICAL MOTION. AS SUCH...CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. HOWEVER...WITH TSTMS FORECAST TO SPREAD
EWD/ESEWD INTO RICHER PBL MOISTURE ENCOURAGING MODERATE TO STRONG
BUOYANCY...A FEW SVR STORMS MAY ENSUE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 35-50 KT WILL PROMOTE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE...
WITH ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE. THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE
OF THE SVR RISK IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.
HOWEVER...IF A LOCAL CORRIDOR OF GREATER SVR WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL
WERE TO BECOME EVIDENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPSCALE-GROWING AREA
OF CONVECTION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WW ISSUANCE MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED -- A LOW-CONFIDENCE SCENARIO ATTM.
..COHEN/HART.. 07/25/2015
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40799973 39789994 39510105 39760221 41090338 42500355
43820296 44220202 43630106 40799973
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