MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1573
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0427 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN SD INTO CNTRL NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 010927Z - 011200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY TSTMS EVOLVING
   FROM PARTS OF SWRN SD INTO CNTRL NEB THROUGH THE EARLY-MORNING
   HOURS. HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...THE NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENED BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND MAX
   AND RELATED INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS A NW/SE-ORIENTED
   BAROCLINIC ZONE ANALYZED FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY
   IS FOSTERING AN UPSWING IN TSTM ACTIVITY FROM THE BLACK HILLS REGION
   INTO CNTRL NEB. EARLIER 00Z RAOBS AT LBF AND RAP SAMPLED MODERATELY
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES -- E.G. AROUND 7.0-7.5 C/KM IN THE H7-H5
   LAYER -- PROVIDING SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR STRONG
   UPDRAFTS. THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 30-40-KT MID-LEVEL NWLYS SAMPLED BY
   AREA VWPS IS ENHANCING DEEP SHEAR SUFFICIENTLY FOR
   SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED CELLS OFFERING SOME SVR-HAIL POTENTIAL. SIMILAR
   POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY-MORNING HOURS.
   HOWEVER...MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE REGION IS
   DEVOID OF ANY SALIENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS STRONGLY
   ENHANCING DEEP ASCENT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN NO MORE THAN AN
   ISOLATED SVR-TSTM RISK. FURTHERMORE...THE DECOUPLED NATURE OF THE
   PBL SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT NIL SVR-WIND RISK.

   ..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 08/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   40889935 42750195 43790309 44510273 44330176 43360023
               42209894 41009804 40889935