MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1602
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1105 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 468...

   VALID 040405Z - 040600Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 468
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY REMAIN FAIRLY VIGOROUS
   INTO THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME...WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR STRONG
   SURFACE GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  THE NEED FOR A
   NEW WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
   BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...ACCOMPANYING A
   WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MIGRATING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN THE SUBSTANTIVE CLUSTER OF STORMS
   WHICH HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE NORTH OF
   AMARILLO.  CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS SURGED SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
   BULK OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION...AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME RECENT
   WEAKENING TREND TO CONVECTION EVIDENT IN RADAR AND LIGHTNING
   DATA...IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASINGLY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
   INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...A MESOSCALE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER
   DEFINED ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ...AND
   COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
   05-07Z TIME FRAME...AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TEXAS
   PANHANDLE INTO AREAS SOUTH OF GAGE OK.  

   ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...SEASONABLY HIGH
   MOISTURE CONTENT /CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1.9
   INCHES/ MAY CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING THAT COULD
   CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER DOWNBURST OR TWO...ON THE NOSE OF A 20-30 KT
   SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY
   BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...BUT PEAK GUSTS APPROACHING
   OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS PROBABLY WILL BE RATHER LOCALIZED IN
   NATURE.

   ..KERR.. 08/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35480071 35900068 36460032 35999864 35059838 34809967
               35190081 35480071