MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1633
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0323 PM CDT FRI AUG 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN NV AND WRN UT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 072023Z - 072130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUST AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL
   PROBABLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD EWD TOWARDS THE UT/NV BORDER OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW
   OVER THE CNTRL SIERRA/FAR WRN GREAT BASIN WITH AN ATTENDANT BELT OF
   SWLY 40 KT H5 FLOW SPREADING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN
   WITHIN A MID-LEVEL DRYSLOT.  SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES
   A TROUGH/WIND SHIFT FROM 15 MI W DRA NNEWD TO 55 MI SE EKO NEAR
   DEVELOPING STRONG/SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN WAKE
   OF EARLIER CLOUD COVER IS DESTABILIZING AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM
   THROUGH THE 70S.  A RAP-ANALYZED MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET /-15 DEG C AT
   H5/ WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE W DURING THE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING.  SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT
   STORM ORGANIZATION IN MAINLY THE FORM OF STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELLS
   AND PERHAPS TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  THE MAIN THREATS WITH
   THE STRONGER STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLD 50-70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE LARGEST CORES.  THE EXPECTED ISOLD
   COVERAGE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL DUE LARGELY IN PART TO
   MARGINAL BUOYANCY WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH.

   ..SMITH/DIAL.. 08/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SLC...LKN...

   LAT...LON   39461573 40561484 40951356 40701295 40051289 39101370
               38921473 38981531 39461573