|
Mesoscale Discussion 1661 |
< Previous MD Next MD >
|
|
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1661
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ARIZONA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 111728Z - 111900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH PRIMARILY A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MOVED INTO
PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG/GUSTY OUTFLOWS APPROACHING
SEVERE LIMITS...WITH 50-KNOT GUSTS REPORTED AT DVT AND FFZ WITHIN
THE PAST HOUR. 30-40 KNOT LOW- AND MID-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
NOTED ON THE VAD WIND PROFILER AT EMX IN THE PAST HOUR AMIDST WEAK
TO MODERATE BUOYANCY SUGGESTS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN/NEAR STORMS AS THAT HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR IS
TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE VIA CONVECTIVE PROCESSES. THIS THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE...BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..COOK/HART.. 08/11/2015
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
LAT...LON 32951353 33911411 35131436 36261398 36611341 36691222
36181100 35001012 33710963 32590999 32101118 32241256
32531307 32951353
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
|
|