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Mesoscale Discussion 1663 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1663
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ID / WRN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 112208Z - 112315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. LOW SPATIAL COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF THREAT WILL
PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE CONDITIONS OVER WRN MT HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 90
DEG F AND TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE NOW IN THE 40-45 DEG RANGE.
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY THE 12Z BOI AND TFX
RAOBS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK BUOYANCY. THE INVERTED-V PROFILES
/NEAR DRY ADIABATIC 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES/ WILL SUPPORT A FEW
MICROBURSTS WITH THE LARGER CORES AS THEY DEVELOP NWD INVOF THE
ID/MT BORDER. THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS MAY OCCASIONALLY YIELD
POCKETS OF HIGHER GUSTS AND POTENTIALLY BE CAPABLE OF 50-65 MPH
WINDS.
..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 08/11/2015
ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...OTX...
LAT...LON 45491438 46051547 47431538 47801441 47801320 47061236
45701256 45491438
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